Ukraine launches major drone attack again on Russia

Ukraine has mounted another large drone attack against Russia overnight, launching hundreds of drones and once again targeting oil infrastructure and military sites near St. Petersburg.

Videos online appear to show large smoke plumes rising from an oil facility in St. Petersburg’s port. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine had successfully hit oil infrastructure in the port as well as military targets around the Kronstadt naval base.

Russia’s defense ministry said nearly 500 long-range drones were involved in the attack. Moscow's mayor said 200 targeted the capital.

Ukraine is now successfully hitting oil refineries and infrastructure, as well as defense industry facilities, deep inside Russia on an almost daily basis, as its long-range drone campaign grows.

Many Russian regions are suffering fuel shortages as a result, with people filming themselves waiting in long lines at gas stations.

The Ukrainian drone strikes are bringing the war home to Russians not previously seen.

At the same time, Russia’s troubles of the battlefield have appeared to mount. An increasingly effective campaign by Ukraine using medium-range drones is targeting Russia’s logistics and seeking to cut off supply lines into occupied Crimea.

Authorities in Crimea have declared a state of emergency over fuel shortages and imposed curfews amid power outages caused by Ukrainian strikes.

Russian president Vladimir Putin overnight made a rare appearance in a uniform and making a visit to a supposed military position, in an effort to signal he has the war under close control.

Meanwhile, Russia’s military on Saturday claimed to have seized the city of Kostiantynivka, a key defensive hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

While Russia has been advancing into the city, there are reasons to doubt it has actually fully captured it yet. Russia has repeatedly falsely claimed to be in control of cities when that is far from the case.

The fall of Kostiantynivka would be Moscow’s first significant battlefield success this year and Russian officials are already hailing it as proof the war is still going Russia’s way despite signs it is turning in Kyiv’s favor. But for now it’s premature to say the city has fallen.   

While Kostiantynivka’s fall would be significant, it would be unlikely to allow Russia to rapidly advance further towards capturing all of Donbas, that Putin has set as his priority.

Russia is barely advancing, and may have lost more territory overall than it gained in May, according to Konrad Muzyka, a Polish military analyst and director of Rochan Consulting.

The Russian gains are also coming at enormous cost. Russia’s forces are taking tens of thousands of casualties, according to independent analysts and Western intelligence assessment.

A report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) this week assessed Russia’s military has now suffered around 1.4 million casualties, including as many as 450,000 deaths.

Ukraine has suffered between 525,000 to 625,000 casualties, the CSIS report found.