It’s a matter of "when," not "if" the Cleveland Cavaliers’ season ends. They are down 3-0 in the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals and trying to stave off elimination in front of their home fans Monday vs. the New York Knicks.
New York has been crushing teams in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. The Knicks have won 10 straight games and have the best point differential (+225) over a 10-game span in regular-season and postseason history.
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Somehow, Cleveland took money in the betting market before Games 2 and 3. Despite blowing Game 1, the Cavs closed as +6 underdogs in Game 2 after opening at +5.5. Then, they opened as -2.5 favorites for Game 3 at home and closed at -3.5.
Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell is bummed out after a turnover vs. the New York Knicks during Game 3 of the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals at the Rocket Mortgage Arena in Ohio. (David Richard/Imagn Images)
Well, it seems the market has given up on the Cavaliers, as they are consensus +2.5 underdogs with their backs against the wall in Game 4. Will Cleveland live to fight another day, or does NYK clinch an NBA Finals berth Monday?
Let’s discuss.
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Bet Slip
- New York’s moneyline (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.4 units (u).
- Knicks wing Mikal Bridges OVER 14.5 points (-115) at FanDuel, risking 0.58u.
- Cleveland C Jarrett Allen OVER 12.5 points (-112) at FanDuel, risking 0.52u.
I’m done beating around the bush; the Knicks are sweeping the Cavaliers. Did you see the final minutes of Game 3? The Cavs pretty much tapped out. They are cooked, regardless of what garbage head coach Kenny Atkinson spews about "shot quality".
As I wrote in my Eastern Conference Finals preview, Cleveland has no answer for Jalen Brunson. The Cavaliers need Donovan Mitchell and James Harden playing well to win this series, and Brunson can hunt one of them on defense.
Meanwhile, New York has elite perimeter defenders, such as Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart to guard Mitchell and Harden.
That said, since I’m so convinced NYK closes the Cavs out Monday and don’t want to fuss with the spread, I’m taking the KNICKS MONEYLINE (-140) for Game 4.
Mikal Bridges OVER 14.5 points
New York Knicks wing Mikal Bridges shoots over Cleveland Cavaliers PG James Harden in Game 3 of the conference finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena in Ohio. (Scott Galvin/Imagn Images)
I gave out New York -1.5 series spread pre-series, so I’m betting with "house money" because there is less than a 1% chance Cleveland gets this to a Game 7. Bridges was rightfully dogged for no-showing in Games 1-5 vs. the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, but he has balled since.
From Game 6 of the Atlanta series to Game 3 of the conference finals, Bridges is averaging 19.1 points on 69.1% shooting. He has scored 18+ points in every game this series on 75.9% true shooting (.711/.500/1.000).
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Also, Harden and Mitchell, who are defensive liabilities, spent the most time defending Bridges in Game 3, and he destroyed them. Bridges went 7-for-8 with Harden and Mitchell defending him.
Jarrett Allen OVER 12.5 points
Cleveland Cavaliers C Jarrett Allen gets a layup against the New York Knicks in Game 3 of the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals at Rocket Arena. (David Richard/Imagn Images)
Allen seems to be the only Cavalier to have any heart. He’s scored 13+ points in Games 2 and 3 and has a team-best 137 offensive rating in the conference finals. Plus, Harden would rather pass than shoot, and Allen could catch a few alley-oops.
Finally, Allen has the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in this series and can get some easy putbacks if the Knicks are chasing Cleveland’s shooters off the 3-point line.
Prediction: Knicks 114, Cavaliers 101.
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Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru.
